Potential Tropical Cyclone One

19 Jun 2024 / Texas, United States & Northeastern Mexico

Heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and gusty winds forecast along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Thursday (20 June)...

…A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande;
- the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours…

…At 1000pm CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday…

…The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center…

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5-10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico…

…The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline… …The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves…

…In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area overnight or Wednesday…

(For information about operations in the United States, contact GAC North America at [email protected])

Source: Extract from National Hurricane Center, Miami FL, Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory No.6 issued at 1000 PM CDT 18 June 2024

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